Samsung Electronics is adding DRAM wafer capacity. A September 22, 2026 Edaily write-up of a KB Securities note still says standard DRAM will get tighter, not looser.
Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, called the HBM-centered capacity shift a structural change. It raises both the shortage risk for general-purpose DRAM and the path for higher prices. The brokerage did not publish a phone LPDDR contract price or an Apple unit allocation in that note.
Wafer capacity up; standard DRAM share down
KB Securities puts Samsung’s monthly DRAM wafer capacity up 14% year over year this year and 16% next year. HBM’s share of that capacity is expected to move from 27% last year to 33% this year and 40% next year. Standard DRAM’s share falls from 73% to 65%, then to 59%.
Overall wafer count rises. The slice left for general-purpose DRAM shrinks. HBM uses more wafers per bit than commodity DRAM, and new lines are steered first to HBM and high-capacity server parts.
Photo: Apple
Server DDR5 lead times hit 52 weeks
As of September, high-capacity DDR5 server memory lead times have stretched to a maximum of 52 weeks, Edaily reports from the KB note. That is more than eight times a normal-market 6-week window. In practice, some orders are quoted at about a year.
Samsung is prioritizing hyperscalers under long-term supply agreements. Spot and general-customer volumes tighten as a result. Samsung’s DRAM inventory is estimated at a historic low of less than 10 days this month.
Phone brands already felt the mobile side of that squeeze. The site covered Samsung seeking another 7–10% hike on phone DRAM and NAND, and smaller makers forced into board redesigns when memory allocation ran out. Today’s KB note is about wafer mix and inventory days, not a new phone price sheet.
Double-digit DRAM price rise still expected
KB Securities forecasts general-purpose DRAM prices will rise by double digits in the third and fourth quarters, above market expectations. The firm frames a structural imbalance: new capacity still struggles to match demand growth.
That sits beside earlier shipment math. Counterpoint’s track pointed to a roughly 14% smartphone shipment drop in 2026 as memory costs bite. TrendForce later lifted 2026 phone production to 1.07 billion on early component buys. Neither figure appears in the September 22 Edaily piece. The KB note sticks to Samsung capacity shares, lead times, inventory days, and price direction.
Photo: Apple
HBM4 revenue triples in the third quarter
Third-quarter HBM4 revenue is projected to more than triple versus the prior quarter. In the second half, HBM4 is expected to account for more than 60% of Samsung’s total HBM revenue. As HBM4E mass production expands next year, HBM4’s share of HBM revenue is projected to rise from 40% this year to 80% next year. KB Securities also forecasts HBM4 revenue next year will more than double versus this year.
CXMT’s recent LPDDR6 mass-production start adds a fourth supplier story in phones. It does not reverse Samsung’s HBM wafer shift described in the Korean brokerage note.
What Edaily and KB did not publish
The September 22 article does not name a smartphone LPDDR5X or LPDDR6 dollar price. It does not list Apple, Xiaomi, or other OEM allocation volumes. It does not give a full-year DRAM bit-growth percentage for phones alone. The concrete numbers are wafer-capacity growth, HBM versus standard share, the 52-week DDR5 lead time, sub-10-day inventory, double-digit general DRAM price forecasts for Q3–Q4, and the HBM4 revenue and mix projections.
For phone OEMs, the message is blunt. More Samsung DRAM wafers can still mean less commodity DRAM if HBM keeps taking the mix. That is the capacity math KB Securities put on the page this morning.
Source: Edaily, Sep. 22, 2026 (KB Securities report on Samsung Electronics DRAM capacity and HBM mix)
