Counterpoint Research still puts 2026 as a hard year for phone shipments. Its Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker has global volume down about 14.3% year on year. A September model-level update keeps that same contraction figure.
Memory is the main squeeze
Mobile memory sits at the center. Higher DRAM and NAND costs, plus weaker supply for lower priced phones, cut into mass-market SKUs. Chipset prices are up as well. Premium lines hold up better than the sub-$200 band and much of the midrange.
Channel stock built unevenly in the first half. As that inventory clears, Counterpoint expects a sharper drop in shipments and production orders in the second half.
Samsung tipped to retake No. 1
Samsung shipments are forecast to grow about 0.8% in 2026. That is enough, in Counterpoint’s view, to take the global lead again. The note points at supply-chain depth, a wide portfolio, and steadier access to memory and semiconductors.
Apple down a little
Apple is seen down about 2.1% in 2026, then back to growth of around 2.8% in 2027. Preferential component access and financing help. Higher iPhone 18 pricing and staggered Pro versus base timing can still move quarterly demand.
Several major Chinese brands face declines of roughly 15% to 34%. Huawei is listed as an exception, with about 8% growth in 2026 on China demand and HiSilicon supply. The wider recovery is pushed into 2028 in the same tracker, after another soft year in 2027.
Photo: Apple
Source: Counterpoint Research
