Since the beginning of 2026, global smartphone prices have increased by an average of 15%. Already, more than 40% of smartphone models have seen price increases, with newly released models costing an average of 25% more than models from the same period last year. Due to the effects of soaring memory prices, there is increasing pressure to raise the prices of the iPhone 18 series, which is about to be announced. How should Japanese users buy iPhones in the future?
In 2026, global smartphone prices will rise by 15%!
Research firm Counterpoint Research has announced retail price trends in the global smartphone market in 2026.
Since the beginning of 2026, the retail price of smartphones has been on the rise, backed by memory prices that have increased approximately four times compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
Additionally, more than 40% of smartphone models have experienced price increases, with the global average rising by about 15%. The price of some models has increased by almost double.
Newly released smartphones are on average 25% more expensive than models from the same period last year, and the wave of price increases extends not only to existing models but also to new products.
What I would like to note is that while the average price increase rate for existing models is 15%, it has reached 25% for newly released models. It’s not just that “smartphones have increased in price by 15%,” but it can be said that users who are planning to replace their smartphones are more susceptible to price increases.
Is the impact of price increases more gradual in the high-end market?
Looking at the price increase rate by region, India had the steepest price increase at 21%, followed by Asia Pacific at 19% and Middle East/Africa at 18%.
In these regions, low-priced low-end and mid-end models account for a high proportion of sales, making them susceptible to memory price increases.In addition, discounts due to promotions are reduced, leading to price increases.
On the other hand, price increases are relatively moderate in regions with a high sales ratio of premium models, such as America (5% increase), Europe (7%), and China (10%).
Counterpoint Research points to the fact that price increases in these regions are more concentrated on newly released models than on existing models, and that the widespread use of installment payments has reduced the perceived burden on users.
A closer look at the price increase rate by region shows that there are large variations in the range of price increases within the region.
Device manufacturers (OEMs) are reducing costs by reducing storage capacity, simplifying cameras, and reintroducing 4G models. Telecommunications carriers and retailers are using sales methods that reduce monthly costs through installment payments and trade-in programs, rather than lowering device prices themselves.
Price hike pressure on iPhone 18 series as well
Until now, Apple has kept the selling price (in the US) of the iPhone, which accounts for about half of its total sales, unchanged.
However, Counterpoint Research predicts that the iPhone 18 series, which is expected to be announced at an event on September 10, Japan time, will face increasing price pressure due to memory shortages and component costs remaining high.
Counterpoint Research analyzes that in response to rising prices, consumers are delaying the replacement period, waiting for major sales, and choosing used or refurbished products.
What will be the price of iPhone in Japan?
Japan is not featured separately in Counterpoint Research’s survey data.
However, high-end iPhones are the mainstream of sales around the world, and it can be said that the situation is similar to that in the United States, where it is difficult for users to experience price increases due to various campaigns by carriers.
Japan is affected by the weaker yen, so even if the price in the US remains unchanged, there is a possibility that the selling price in Japan will rise. Therefore, the actual cost at the time of purchase is likely to be more important than before.
In Japan, it is common to compare not only the selling price at the Apple Store, but also the “actual cost”, which includes the carrier’s device purchase program and trade-in. Therefore, even if the price of the iPhone 18 were to be increased, the amount of increase in the price of the device and the amount of increase in the amount that users will actually pay may not necessarily match.
In other words, for Japanese users, it is important not only “how much the price of iPhone 18 will increase” but also “which purchasing method can reduce the actual cost.”
iPhone 18 Pro starts from 212,800 yen, foldable iPhone starts from 370,000 yen?
Considering recent expected sales prices and exchange rates, the iPhone 18 Pro (256GB model) is expected to cost around 212,800 yen, and the iPhone 18 Pro Max (256GB model) is expected to cost around 232,800 yen (all prices include tax).
Furthermore, it is predicted that the selling price of the foldable iPhone rumored to be the “iPhone Ultra” will be around 370,000 yen to 400,000 yen.
It is no longer uncommon for the latest iPhone models to cost over 200,000 yen, making it a price range that requires a heavy burden to purchase in bulk.
How should I buy iPhone 18?
With prices rising worldwide, what we Japanese users should pay attention to is not just the iPhone’s “base price.”
In a situation where prices continue to rise, “buying the latest model on the day it goes on sale” is not the only correct answer. You may need to consider options such as extending the time it takes to replace your iPhone, choosing a model from the previous generation, or continuing to use your current iPhone by replacing the battery.
In any case, I tried to think of countermeasures that would lighten the actual burden, or perhaps even reconsider the way I was thinking up until now.
Thorough utilization of residual value setting programs
This is an installment payment program provided by carriers that assumes you return your device. Although you will need to return the device after a certain period of time, the advantage is that you can reduce the monthly burden and the actual cost for using it for a certain period of time.
If you consider how to use the device by replacing it at regular intervals, without assuming ownership, this is a purchasing method that is compatible with iPhones, whose value is less likely to decline in the second-hand market.
However, it is important to keep in mind that if your device is damaged or submerged in water, you may incur additional costs when returning it.
Partial purchases and trade-ins at Apple
When purchasing directly from Apple, you cannot expect promotions such as discounts, but if you use an eligible credit card or pay later payment plan, you can purchase in installments without paying interest.
By entering the information about the iPhone you want to trade in, the trade-in amount will be deducted from your payment amount, so you can reduce your payment amount.
However, depending on the model, the trade-in value is often higher at a purchase specialty store.
Aiming for outdated models and refurbished products such as iPhone 17
Our policy is not to target the latest iPhones.
After the release of the iPhone 18 series, the prices and sales conditions of previous generation models such as the iPhone 17 series may change. We also expect to see more options for Apple-certified refurbished products and the used market.
Extending life by replacing batteries
Instead of purchasing a new iPhone that costs more than 200,000 yen, this strategy is to replace the battery of your existing iPhone and extend the time it takes to replace it.
iOS27 is said to make iPhones, including older models, more agile, and for supported models (iPhone 11, iPhone SE (2nd generation) and later), it may be effective to extend the lifespan of the iPhone by replacing the battery.
For example, at Apple’s official repair service, the battery replacement fee for iPhone 11 to iPhone 13 series is 15,600 yen at the time of writing.
Source: CounterPoint Research
Photo: Apple
Source: iPhone Mania
