Pre-orders for the new iPhone are approaching. A question that comes up a lot every year around this time is, “If I make a reservation, how long will it actually take to receive it?”
Since 2017, iPhone Mania has had a system where readers can write in their reservation dates and arrival dates. There are 17,374 records collected there. When we tallied up 4,049 cases for which both the reservation date and arrival date were the same, the numbers clearly showed the difference between those who received their items early and those who had to wait.
Only 7% of people received their order the same day or the next day.
First, let’s look at the big picture. The distribution of the number of days it took from reservation to arrival is as follows.
| number of days I waited | number | ratio |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 days | 287 items | 7.1% |
| 2-3 days | 223 items | 5.5% |
| 4-7 days | 1,489 items | 36.8% |
| 8-14 days | 686 items | 16.9% |
| 15-30 days | 908 items | 22.4% |
| 31-60 days | 381 items | 9.4% |
| 61 days or more | 75 items | 1.9% |
4,049 valid answers. Records based on self-reports submitted by readers to iPhone Mania from 2017 to 2022.
The most common time was 4-7 days at 36.8%. A total of 49.4% of people received their package within a week.
On the other hand, 33.7% of people waited more than two weeks. 11.3% of people waited more than a month. The maximum is 124 days or 4 months.
Only 7.1% of people received their package on the same day or the next day. “Book now, get it now” was an anomaly, at least in this record.
The waiting time varies by more than double depending on the year.
| year | number | average | longest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 1,062 items | 11.0 days | 46 days |
| 2018 | 282 items | 8.4 days | 53 days |
| 2019 | 42 items | 9.1 day | 34 days |
| 2020 | 1,699 items | 18.4 days | 119 days |
| 2021 | 953 items | 12.5 days | 124 days |
Calculated by year of reservation date. 4,049 valid answers. In 2022, there are only 11 cases, so it is excluded from the table.
The average wait time was 18.4 days in 2020. It was a year when there was a severe shortage of semiconductors. In particular, the iPhone 12 Pro stood out at 22.5 days (1,109 cases), which pushed up the overall average. Even in the same year, the iPhone 12 mini takes 5.8 days, which is nearly 4 times the difference.
On the contrary, in 2018 and 2019 it was around 8-9 days. In years when you could buy it normally, there were fewer posts (42 in 2019). This suggests that it was a system in which people gathered only in years when there was a long wait.
4 conditions to receive it quickly
Now comes the main point. Even for the same model in the same year, the waiting time varied greatly depending on the conditions.
Reservations for iPhone18 Pro and iPhone18 Pro Max will begin tonight, September 12th (Saturday) at 9pm. I have written down the “conditions for early receipt” that I found from the past 4,049 records, and how I will use them tonight. The reservation procedure and the actual prices of each company are summarized on the iPhone18 Pro reservation/iPhone18 Pro Max reservation summary page, and this article summarizes the fastest way to prepare for ordering at the Apple Store.
① Make a reservation on the reservation start date (8.8 days → more than 20 days)
This was the one that worked the best. This is the average number of waiting days for each reservation date for iPhone 13 in 2021.
| Booked date | number | Average waiting days |
|---|---|---|
| September 17th (reservation start date) | 285 items | 8.8 days |
| September 18th | 93 items | 11.9 days |
| September 19th | 39 items | 14.0 days |
| September 25th | 20 items | 18.3 days |
| September 26th | 23 items | 20.2 days |
| September 29th | 10 items | 21.7 days |
2021 iPhone13 series. Only posted on days when there are 10 or more items.
8.8 days for those who made reservations on the reservation start date, and around 20 days for those who made reservations 10 days later. The difference is more than double. It’s common sense, but I didn’t expect it to be so obvious.
② Make a reservation online instead of in-store (15.8 days → 11.4 days)
| Reservation method → Pick up | number | average |
|---|---|---|
| Online → Home | 523 items | 11.4 days |
| Online → Store | 260 items | 12.9 days |
| Shop storefront → store | 167 items | 15.8 days |
2021. Only combinations with 20 or more items.
When I made a reservation in-store, it was 4.4 days later than when I made an online reservation. It is also faster to receive the item if it is delivered to your home.
This seems to be due to the fact that it is difficult to start the process at the same time as the reservation starts (there are opening times and waiting times) at the store. If you consider this in conjunction with ①, “Reserve on the reservation start date,” it will be most effective to make the reservation online at the same time as the start date.
If you want to book tonight at 9pm “online, as soon as it starts”
Docomo starts reception at 9pm au starts reception at 9pm Softbank starts reception at 9pm Rakuten Mobile starts reception at 9pm
Make a reservation at the Apple Store (SIM-free) 
*The above includes advertisements (affiliate). Please check each official website for prices, benefits, and conditions.
③ Priority reservation was clearly effective (17.0 days → 9.9 days)
| priority reservation | number | average |
|---|---|---|
| can be | 249 items | 9.9 days |
| none | 2,403 items | 17.0 days |
Total for 2020 and 2021.
There was a difference of 7 days. People often wonder if carriers’ priority reservations and advance entries really make any sense, but within the scope of this record, they are clearly effective.
④ You will have to wait for the large capacity model (256GB 9.2 days → 512GB 20.7 days)
| capacity | number | average |
|---|---|---|
| 256GB | 426 items | 9.2 days |
| 128GB | 299 items | 11.1 day |
| 1TB | 66 items | 20.0 days |
| 512GB | 161 items | 20.7 days |
2021. Only capacity for 20 or more items.
512GB or more had to wait more than twice as long as 256GB. Since the number of production is small, it seems that it is easily affected. If you really want it on the release date, you may choose not to be greedy for the capacity.
There were also differences by career.
| career | number | average |
|---|---|---|
| Softbank | 229 items | 10.6 days |
| au | 221 items | 11.8 days |
| rakuten mobile | 59 items | 11.8 days |
| Apple (SIM-free) | 129 items | 12.9 days |
| docomo | 315 items | 14.5 days |
2021. Only carriers with 20 or more cases.
There is a 4 day difference between Softbank and Docomo. However, this number is only for 2021, and there is a good chance that the rankings will change depending on the year. It might be a good idea to look at it just for reference.
The more popular the model, the slower it is.
By model in 2021, it is as follows.
- iPhone13 Pro Max ─ 14.7 days (342 items)
- iPhone13 Pro ─ 11.9 days (352 items)
- iPhone13 ── 9.6 days (104 items)
- iPhone13 mini ─ 4.7 days (40 items)
There is a difference of about 3 times between Pro Max and mini. The honest result was that the more popular the model, the longer the wait.
What’s going to happen this year?
Looking at past data, waiting days only increase in years when supply cannot keep up. This was the case in 2017, 2020, and 2021. In 2018 and 2019, when you could buy it normally, there were hardly any records of waiting days to begin with.
This year’s focus is on the foldable iPhone “iPhone Duo,” which was announced on September 10th. The price is 364,800 yen including tax, and the release date is October 23rd, about a month later than the iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max released on September 18th.
First-generation models are typically produced in limited quantities, and the situation may be similar to 2017, when the iPhone X was released. In the iPhone Mania reader survey, 21.3% of people were aiming for folding before the announcement (pre-announcement reader survey).
On the other hand, if the Pro series is supplied as usual, it may settle down to around 10 days on average. You won’t know until you start.
Applying the four conditions to tonight’s iPhone18 Pro
| conditions | Difference in past data | What to do with iPhone18 Pro tonight |
|---|---|---|
| ① Make a reservation on the reservation start date | 8.8 days → more than 20 days | Apply tonight, Saturday, September 12th, immediately after registration opens at 9pm. The Docomo Online Shop will be undergoing maintenance from 8:30pm to 9:00pm, so please log in before that time (Docomo’s instructions) |
| ② Make a reservation online | 4.4 days earlier than in store | All four online shops open from 9 p.m. onwards. The store will open the following day, the 13th (Sunday). For instructions, see the articles for au, Softbank, and Rakuten Mobile. |
| ③ Priority reservation/preparation | 7 days difference | This year, there will be no “priority reservation” slot, but those who have completed their login, payment method, and eSIM preparations by the day before will be in the same position. Softbank will complete the “main application” within the deadline after securing inventory. |
| ④ Don’t be greedy for large capacity | 256GB 9.2 days → 512GB 20.7 days | 256GB if you want to receive it on release day. iPhone18 Pro/Pro Max comes in 4 levels from 256GB to 2TB, and the higher the capacity, the lower the production number. |
The editorial department’s own records are also available. Last year’s iPhone 17 Pro was ordered at 9:01 p.m. by specifying the model and payment method in the Apple Store app, and arrived on the day of release. Even when I used the iPhone 16 Pro from the year before last, it took 9:15 p.m. to complete even when I used three devices at the same time, and it arrived eight days after the release date. 4,049 trends and the same conclusion.
Reservation counters for 4 companies (reception starts at 9:00 p.m.)
Docomo Transfer/Model Change au Transfer/Model Change SoftBank Transfer/Model Change Rakuten Mobile Transfer/Model Change
Make a reservation at the Apple Store (SIM-free)
*The above includes advertisements (affiliate). Please check each official website for prices, benefits, and conditions.
This year too, we will collect your records.
All numbers in this article were provided by readers. We have prepared the same location this year as well.
If you write down the model, capacity, color, carrier, date of reservation, and actual date of delivery, this will help others who are also waiting. Previously, the system was just for posting, but this time we have made it possible for users to reply to each other. Just saying, “We arrived in three days” might ease someone’s anxiety.
The writing location is divided by model.
- iPhone18 Pro bulletin board
- iPhone18 Pro Max Bulletin Board
- iPhone Duo message board
- Reservation/arrival questions/chat
Registration (free) to the iM community is required to write. You can start using your Apple Account or Google Account. No registration is required if you just want to read.
About this data
- 4,049 valid responses (out of 17,374 posts from 2017 to 2022, both reservation date and arrival date are recorded)
- All information is self-reported by readers. This is not actual shipping results.
- Due to its nature, there is a bias that those who have to wait are more likely to write. The actual average may be shorter than the numbers shown here.
- Categories with a small number of cases (less than 20 cases, less than 10 cases by reservation date) are excluded from the aggregation.
Source: iPhone Mania
