TrendForce has announced the global foldable smartphone market forecast for 2026. While overall market shipments are flat, we predict that Apple’s just-announced iPhone Duo will ship approximately 5 million units and capture a 24.8% share. The iPhone Duo is likely to change the competitive axis of the foldable smartphone market.
Foldable smartphone market shipments in 2026 will be at the same level as the previous year
Following Apple’s announcement of the iPhone Duo, TrendForce has released a forecast of shipments for the global foldable smartphone market in 2026.
TrendForce predicts that the number of foldable smartphones shipped in 2026 will be approximately 20.2 million units, an increase of 0.5% from the previous year, which is the same as the previous year.
In 2027, we estimate that shipments will reach approximately 23.5 million units, an increase of 16.3% from the previous year.
iPhone Duo to gain 24.8% in foldable smartphones in 2026
It is predicted that iPhone Duo will ship approximately 5 million units in 2026, and will suddenly capture 24.8%, or one-quarter of the market share.
Shipments for the Android camp, excluding Apple, are expected to be approximately 15.2 million units, a significant drop of over 20% from the previous year. This decline is due to a sharp rise in component costs.
In other words, the overall market will remain almost flat as new demand from the iPhone Duo offsets the decline in shipments from the Android camp.
By manufacturer, Samsung is expected to have a 35.1% share with approximately 7.1 million units shipped, and Huawei is expected to have a 24.8% share with approximately 5 million units shipped.
With Apple’s entry into the market, TrendForce predicts that Samsung and other Chinese manufacturers will step up efforts to review product strategies, evolve features, and reduce costs.
iPhone Duo will change the foldable smartphone market
For the iPhone Duo, TrendForce goes beyond simply pursuing a foldable model with a large screen. Instead, we value the inner display construction with 10 layers of ultra-thin materials and nano-texture treatment to reduce reflections and reduce the appearance of creases, long-term reliability, ease of use with consistent inner and outer displays, and a thinness of 5.2 mm when unfolded.
In particular, we are paying attention to the decision to omit the dedicated periscope telephoto camera and use fingerprint authentication instead of facial recognition in order to achieve thinness.
Furthermore, iOS27’s features such as Split View that allows two apps to run at the same time and the adoption of an interface that matches the folding angle of the screen suggest that the value of foldable smartphones will expand from competition in hardware to software and multitasking.
We also note that the iPhone Duo will increasingly integrate Apple Intelligence and Siri AI, and predict that future competition in the foldable smartphone market will shift from differentiated hardware to AI-powered interfaces.
iPhone Duo will be released on October 23rd (Friday)
iPhone Duo will be available for pre-order from 9pm on Friday, October 16th, and will be released on Friday, October 23rd.
Japanese mobile carriers have also announced similar sales schedules.
In addition, iOS 27.1 will be released in conjunction with the release of iPhone Duo, and Siri AI is expected to support Japanese.
Source: TrendForce
Source: iPhone Mania
