For the past three years, the price of the standard model that was sold together after the new iPhone was announced was reduced in price, and I purchased the iPhone 17 at an Apple retail store on August 30th, 11 days before the announcement. We will look back at the state of the iPhone 12, the price increase implemented on July 18th, how concerns about high memory costs and the weak yen were combined, along with the results of price revisions.
In the past three years, the price has been reduced by more than 7,000 yen after the new model was announced.
When Apple announces a new iPhone, it will review the prices of older models that are sold together. We looked at how the minimum capacity of the standard model has changed from 2023 to 2025.
| Year of new model release | Combined sale model | Just before the announcement | Immediately after announcement | price reduction amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | iPhone14 128GB | 119,800 yen | 112,800 yen | 7,000 yen |
| 2024 | iPhone15 128GB | 124,800 yen | 112,800 yen | 12,000 yen |
| 2025 | iPhone16 128GB | 124,800 yen | 114,800 yen | 10,000 yen |
In all three cases, the old model became cheaper immediately after the new model was announced. The price reduction range is from 7,000 yen to 12,000 yen, and the simple average is about 9,700 yen. Looking at this track record alone, it seems better to wait until after the iPhone 17 is announced. However, the minimum capacity from iPhone 14 to iPhone 16 was 128GB. The iPhone 17 starts at 256GB, so you can’t compare them with the same capacity. Parts costs and foreign exchange conditions are also different, so it is inappropriate to predict current prices based on past price reductions.
The past three prices of 7,000 yen to 12,000 yen are actual price reductions that could have been received if you waited, and are different from the expected price for iPhone 17.
Due to the poor performance of iPhone 12, there is less room to wait.
Before replacing it, I was using an iPhone 12 with 128GB. There was no shortage of capacity, and it was not a replacement to increase storage. On the other hand, battery life was getting worse. The warranty period for AppleCare that I had subscribed to has ended and I am unable to renew it. Although it is possible to wait until after the new model is announced, you will continue to use it while worrying about charging and warranties. However, this alone did not make me decide to buy it on August 30th. Considering the state of the iPhone 12, it was a burden to keep waiting for the price to drop.
The premise changed with the price increase on July 18th.
I purchased the 256GB SIM-free version of iPhone 17. The price at Apple as of August 31, 2026 is 142,800 yen (tax included), which is 13,000 yen higher than the September 2025 release price of 129,800 yen (tax included).
The price was revised on July 18th. Even if you plan to wait for the price to drop after the new model is announced, the price may change before the announcement. Having faced this fact, the assumption that the current price would remain the same until September collapsed.
This revision was a major factor in speeding up my purchasing decision. However, there is no basis for the price to increase just because the month changes from August to September. The reason we set the deadline at the end of August was not because we expected the revision date to be another month, but because we did not want to postpone the decision until just before the new model was announced.
Furthermore, at an Apple retail store I visited on August 30th, I heard from a staff member, “Normally, many people buy a new model after it goes on sale and after the price of the old model drops, but in August 2026, there were a lot of iPhone sales due to a sense of crisis about price increases.”
At that time, the iPhone 17 in stock was 1 Lavender and 3 Sage. This is the situation at the time of visiting one store, and does not indicate Apple’s overall sales volume or inventory nationwide. Still, I felt that while I was waiting for the price to drop after the announcement, I might run out of the color I wanted.
I considered raising prices again due to high memory prices and weak yen.
What I was concerned about was not only the July revision. Rising component costs due to a global memory shortage and the continued depreciation of the yen also led to concerns that domestic prices would rise again.
TrendForce analyzes that in February 2026, the proportion of memory in smartphone component costs has increased from 10% to 15% to 30% to 40%. In August, we predicted that component costs for the 256GB model of the iPhone 18 Pro would increase by approximately 38% compared to the previous year.
The company also analyzes that Apple may reduce its profit margins to reduce price increases on new models, while also reviewing its pricing strategy for older models. ITmedia Mobile also reported that the domestic revision on July 18th is likely to be an exchange rate adjustment due to the weaker yen, as prices have not been raised at the same time in the United States.
Neither of these are information that Apple has announced to raise the price of iPhone 17 again. I didn’t make the purchase decision based solely on TrendForce’s predictions, and I wasn’t optimistic that the price would go down again this time, just like in the past three years.
The article examining the iPhone 17 price increase theory and when to buy also summarizes the accuracy of price revisions and purchase conditions.
Comparing both price reductions and price increases
There are the following differences between buying at the current price of 142,800 yen and waiting until after the new model is announced.
| Price after announcement | If you buy it now | If you wait |
|---|---|---|
| price reduction | The current price is fixed, and the difference will be higher. | Can be bought cheaply |
| Leave it in place | Start using it first at the same price | You can choose after the new model is announced at the same price. |
| price increase | You can secure the current price | Reconsider whether to pay the increased amount. |
If you buy now, you’ll have bought at a higher price when the price drops after the announcement. If you wait, you can choose after seeing the new model, but the price after the announcement is not yet known. Furthermore, during that time, I had to continue using my iPhone 12, which had concerns about its battery and warranty.
We compared not only “should I buy now or wait for a price drop?” but also the cost of continuing to use the current iPhone, including price reduction, deferral, and price increase.
The time to buy will depend on what you prioritize.
After waiting until August 30th, my final thoughts were as follows.
- I decided on the iPhone 17 as the next model I would use.
- While there was no problem with the capacity of the iPhone 12, there were concerns about battery life and warranty.
- In the past three years, the price has been reduced by 7,000 yen to 12,000 yen after the new model was announced.
- On July 18th, the price of iPhone 17 was actually increased by 13,000 yen.
- At the store I visited, I was informed that there were 4 iPhone 17s in 2 colors in total.
- Considering memory and component costs and the weak yen, another price hike could not be ruled out.
- I wanted to finish my decision at the end of August instead of continuing to hesitate until just before the new model was announced.
There is no single deciding factor. It wasn’t because I was in a rush without knowing about the possibility of a price reduction, nor because I was convinced that the price would increase, but after thinking about each of the circumstances listed above, I decided not to wait any longer.
If you’re planning to sell your current iPhone, it’s a good idea to also check out our article comparing trade-in and purchase prices before and after the new model was announced.
I am aware that the price may drop after the announcement. Still, I decided to buy it without waiting this time because I was worried about the price going up again and the inconvenience of continuing to use my current iPhone.
Even if you are considering iPhone 17 at the same time, there is no need to make a decision based only on past price reductions. How much longer can you use your current iPhone? Are you concerned about price increases or price decreases? Do you want to see the new model before deciding? By arranging them in the order of your interest, you will be able to see when is the right time to buy.
If you have already decided on the iPhone 17, are worried about the current iPhone, and have limited stock of the color you want, there is no need to wait until the announcement. For those who want to see the new model before making a decision, it would probably be better to wait until after it’s announced, while being aware of the possibility of price increases and out-of-stock items.
Source: iPhone Mania
